A recent Pew poll finds Egyptians are optimistic about the future and are embracing the revolution, the Muslim Brotherhood, and the military, Gihan Shahine reports
Everybody inside and outside Egypt seems to be watching with curiosity, enthusiasm, and perhaps a touch of worry, following dramatic changes that swept away a regime held responsible for long decades of repression, curtailed human rights and corruption. Today, an overwhelming majority of Egyptians are celebrating the ousting of former president Mubarak; nearly two-in-three are satisfied with the way things are going in Egypt, and 57 per cent are optimistic about the future of the country.
On the other side of the spectrum, the West -- most prominently the United States and Israel -- is watching with apprehension the dramatic changes unfolding, worried about the impact on their interests in the region.
The United States seems to be winning no friends amid the public unrest. Its popularity in Egypt remains as low as it was in recent years, with many people now feeling more empowered and confident to call for a less close relationship with America. Israel fares even worse. By a 54 per cent to 36 per cent margin, Egyptians want the peace treaty with Israel annulled.
At least these are the results of one recent poll conducted by the US-based Pew Research Centre, which based its survey on face-to-face interviews with 1,000 adults in Egypt between 24 March and 7 April 2011. The findings -- albeit interesting -- have provoked debate among analysts who see some results as illogical.
One bone of contention was that pertaining to religion and the popularity of the Muslim Brotherhood. The poll almost failed to give any definitive answer to one of the most ticklish issues that has been worrying many: whether the nation is heading towards Islamic or more secular rule. The recent rise of Islamism -- especially the Muslim Brotherhood and Salafis -- has boosted fears.
The poll concludes that Egyptians are largely divided over the issue of religion. Whereas about 62 per cent think laws should strictly follow the teachings of the Quran, only 31 per cent of Egyptian Muslims say they sympathise with Islamic fundamentalists. Nearly the same number, 30 per cent, say they sympathise with those who disagree with fundamentalists, and 26 per cent have mixed views on this question. A majority of 81 per cent generally think religious leaders are having a positive influence on the country.
Meanwhile, the public is "clearly open to religious-based political parties being part of a future government" and most people have a favourable opinion of the Muslim Brotherhood, "which has been a major presence in Egyptian society for decades, although it was officially banned from politics throughout the Mubarak era," noted the survey. That said, only 17 per cent of respondents say they want the group to be part of the future government.
Analysts note that the poll has perhaps underestimated the popularity of the Muslim Brotherhood among Egyptians. Poll results showed the group had relatively equal ratings as those of other political groups, including the relatively secular 6 April Movement and political leaders Amr Moussa, Ayman Nour and Mohamed El-Baradei. Whereas three in four of the surveyed group have favourable views of the Brotherhood, and 37 per cent have a very favourable view, the poll found that seven in 10 Egyptians express a positive opinion of the 6 April Movement, a protest organisation formed just three years ago.
"Even though this group [6 April] is often associated with the young, technologically savvy protesters in Tahrir Square, it is equally popular among 18-29 year-olds (69 per cent favourable), 30-49 year-olds (69 per cent), and people 50 and older (70 per cent)," wrote the report. Strangely enough, one in five of the surveyed group also expressed support for the secular Wafd Party.
Although some analysts would challenge the findings, the reason the survey provides for them may yet sound plausible. Both the 6 April Movement and the Muslim Brotherhood were almost equally broadly popular among the public because they were largely regarded as the highest-profile groups involved in demonstrations against Mubarak.
In that vein, the military and its leadership were similarly found to enjoy vast popularity for their positive role in ousting Mubarak's regime. The report shows that at least 88 per cent of the nation thinks the military is having a positive influence on the way things are going in Egypt. Fully 90 per cent rate Field Marshal Mohamed Tantawi favourably, according to the survey. This stands in sharp contrast to how the police are regarded, with 61 per cent of respondents saying the police had a negative impact.
Former foreign minister and head of the Arab League Amr Moussa gained the most favour among suggested presidential candidates. "Roughly nine in 10 (89 per cent) assign him a favourable rating, and 41 per cent say their impression of Moussa is very favourable," wrote the report, adding that, "high-income Egyptians (49 per cent very favourable) are particularly supportive of Moussa."
Seven in 10 Egyptians also express a positive opinion of Ayman Nour, leader of the Ghad Party who was jailed for four years during Mubarak's presidency. Former IAEA chief Mohamed El-Baradei also gets a positive rating from most (57 per cent) Egyptians, although a significant minority (39 per cent) expresses an unfavourable opinion of him. Both Nour and El-Baradei are especially popular among younger people and wealthier respondents, according to Pew.
Political and human rights activist Bahieddin Hassan, however, insists that no matter how scientific and accurate the methodology of any poll is, its findings can never be accurate enough, long standing, or reflective of a reality that is now rapidly changing. "People are still suffering the aftershocks of the tsunami of political changes that are sweeping the country, and it will take people time to grasp and adapt to all those changes," Hassan explains. Accordingly, any poll results will remain "far from concrete, or short-lived at best".
Hassan insists, for instance, that the survey overstates the popularity of political parties and groups vis-à-vis the Brotherhood. For Hassan, the Brotherhood remains the only strong organised group that has a clear strategy for the elections, and which has real power on the ground. No other political party or group, many agree, is as popular or can survive competition with the Brotherhood.
And so, opines Hassan, "it would be hard to imagine, at least for the time being, that a secular group like that of the 6 April Movement would enjoy equal public support as that of the Brotherhood, unless the survey was solely conducted on a sample of politicised youths, which is not the case." For Hassan, one in five support for the Wafd Party is "totally unrealistic". Hassan speculates that more than 17 per cent of Egyptians -- perhaps 25 per cent -- want the Brotherhood to be part of the future government.
As for presidential candidates, Hassan suggests that Moussa was the most popular until his nationwide campaign that started a few days ago proved otherwise. Hassan also estimates that a favourable rating of 41 per cent would sound exaggerated for a candidate like Nour, who may be enjoying less popularity on the ground, especially among those who sympathise with Islamists.
Hassan also contends that the poll has perhaps overblown estimates of those wanting the peace treaty with Israel annulled. "Egyptians have never been war mongers and are not seeking war with Israel," Hassan insisted. Instead, Hassan speculates that Egyptians are largely seeking a more positive and supportive role in the Palestinian issue (opening borders and breaking the siege on Gaza) as well as an end to the former regime's humiliating habit of pandering to Israel's interests over Egyptian interests.
Controversy aside, no one seems to be questioning the poll's conclusion that an overwhelming majority -- 77 per cent -- of Egyptians are happy that former president Hosni Mubarak is gone. "This is not to say that many do not remain cautious about the prospects for political change: just 41 per cent say that a free and fair choice in the next election is very likely, while as many (43 per cent) think it is only somewhat likely, and 16 per cent say it is unlikely," according to Pew.
Democracy has become a major priority for 71 per cent of Egyptians, compared to 60 per cent last year. Most people desire free and fair multi-party elections, and 54 per cent of the surveyed sample favoured democracy over political stability. But most Egyptians (82 per cent) also aspire for improved economic conditions, a fair judiciary (79 per cent) and maintaining law and order (63 per cent). "When a good democracy is tested against a strong economy, it is a 47 per cent to 49 per cent draw, respectively," said the survey.
Regarding economic conditions, the survey finds Egyptians somewhat more positive than they were a year ago. About one third (34 per cent) now rate the economy as good, compared with 20 per cent in 2010; still, most (64 per cent) say economic conditions are bad. But fully 56 per cent think the economy will improve over the next year. Just 25 per cent were optimistic in 2010.
